Transforming dumb network into smart grid(RCM)

Transforming dumb network into smart grid

Aging system needs a charge of investment, technology to meet needs

TYLER HAMILTON
ENERGY REPORTER

Before the Internet there were small private networks that connected PCs, and before these networks were stand-alone computers incapable of sharing information.

And before the computer? We had the trusty old typewriter.

Looking forward, the technological evolution that in three decades moved us from the mechanical typewriter to Internet-connected computer is destined to be repeated in the move to modernize the continent's antiquated electricity system, experts say.

The goal: turn a dumb network of lines and electromechanical devices that is heavily reliant on human intervention into an efficient, two-way, automated "smart grid" that collects, shares and acts on information to manage the flow of electrons.

It's a transition already underway, and for good reason. The transformer devices in a typical electrical substation – that is, a point on the grid where power is converted from a higher to lower voltage (or the reverse) – are designed to last 40 years. The average age of transformers in North America is currently 42.

"You've got this aging infrastructure that isn't going away, and you can't just say you're not going to replace it. There's no choice but to replace it," says Marzio Pozzuoli, founder and CEO of Woodbridge-based RuggedCom Inc.

And that might come sooner than expected. President-elect Barack Obama has promised a major economic stimulus package that includes substantial investment in the U.S. transmission infrastructure, including smart-grid technologies. Similar talk is occurring around the world, including Canada, and companies such as RuggedCom are primed to benefit. "It all looks good for us," Pozzuoli says.

The Canadian company is the world's top seller of "ruggedized" communications gear to electrical utilities. RuggedCom manufactures routers and switches that are similar to the networking equipment that pushes information around the Internet, but with one important twist: Its devices are designed to withstand extreme temperatures, rain and snow, and electromagnetic interference in substation environments – conditions that would fry garden-variety networking equipment.


A step or two behind RuggedCom is network-equipment giant Cisco Systems Inc., which sees the market as an extension of its traditional business. It's another sign the power grid is about to follow in the footsteps of the Internet. Cisco's leaders have named the "smart grid" as one of 24 company-wide initiatives to pursue in 2009, and have called it the most likely place to build a billion-dollar business in the next five years.

There are 275,000 substations in the world, 70,000 of them in North America. Most are filled with electromechanical control devices, the equivalent of analog in a digital age or the typewriter of the computer era. As utilities begin the expensive task of modernizing transmission and distribution networks, Pozzuoli says it's a natural next step to introduce microprocessor-based intelligence to the substation.

"The grid is just another system, but the electric grid is operating blind," says Scott MacDonald, a partner with Emerald Technology Ventures, a Montreal-based venture capital firm that specializes in energy technologies. At a previous firm MacDonald led an investment in RuggedCom and once sat on the company's board.

Compared to the phone or cable company, which can pinpoint and often fix network problems remotely, the local electric utility typically relies on phone complaints from customers to find out about outages on the distribution network. It then sends a crew to wander the streets in search of the failed equipment or line. "They're in the dark ages compared to the telecommunications network," says MacDonald.

The electricity system is a complex beast. Typically, electricity from a large power-generation facility is put on a 500-kilovolt transmission line, travels to a medium-voltage line, and finally to a low-voltage distribution line where it ends up coming out of a residential power outlet at 120 volts. Along the way it passes through different substations and the various transformers, switches, surge protectors and metering devices inside.

Now included at the edge of this system is the much-hyped smart meter. In Ontario, most homes and businesses are now equipped with such a digital device, which measures the amount of electricity being consumed during a given time of day. This permits time-of-use pricing, allowing utilities to offer discounts during periods of low electricity demand and charge a premium during peak periods.

Special devices can also be placed on energy-intensive appliances, such as air conditioners, allowing the utility to temporarily shut off or curtail operation of the appliance during peak times. These applications are part of what utilities call "demand response."

A number of companies offer such technologies and services, and some are publicly traded. Itron Inc. is considered a leader in smart-meter devices, while Comverge Inc. and EnerNOC Inc. offer demand-response services and technology. They're examples of smart-grid applications, but just scratching the surface, Pozzuoli says.

"We're focused on the infrastructure in the middle, which is the real grid," he says, pointing out the true vision of the smart grid is a self-healing, automated grid that can manage complex flows of electrons, from the hundreds – potentially thousands – of large and small sources of power to the millions of homes, businesses, industrial customers and, potentially, electric cars that require that energy.

Without reliable two-way communication in substations, it's not going to happen. There will continue to be disconnects on the grid, silos of information stranded in remote locations. Take the example of the 2003 northeast North America blackout, which was caused by a short circuit after a sagging transmission line touched a tree that hadn't been properly pruned.

"If we had a smart grid, it would have predicted that the branch was causing a fault condition. It would have analyzed what the corrective action was by running all these scenarios in real-time, in milliseconds. It would have then offered up a corrective course of action," says Pozzuoli, adding that system operators today rely on phone calls and email to solve problems.

Pozzuoli says the grid today has 99.97 per cent reliability, meaning you can expect about three hours of outage time a year. On the surface it sounds acceptable, but in the age of the Internet and Web commerce most data centres now require 99.9999 per cent reliability, amounting to about 30 seconds of downtime annually. No wonder Google has entered into a partnership with General Electric to collaborate on the development of smart-grid technologies.

Currently, about 10 per cent of electricity consumption requires "six 9s" of reliability, adds Pozzuoli, but that number is expected to increase to 60 per cent by 2020. By 2020, 10 per cent will require "nine 9s" of reliability, or average downtime of just 32 milliseconds a year.

Getting the massive amounts of information required to reach that level of reliability will require the kind of two-way communications that RuggedCom and Cisco offer, but what happens to all that information once it's collected?

The answer to that is partly explained by the membership of IBM, Microsoft, Accenture, and Hewlett-Packard in the GridWise Alliance, a group of utilities and technology companies that have come together to "realize the vision of a transformed national electricity grid." These tech giants know that as the smart grid evolves there will be a need for systems and software that can collect, store, retrieve and make sense of an overwhelming amount of information to support intelligent decision-making.

Big Blue has been particularly active in the space, knowing full well that utilities – a conservative bunch not likely to put their faith in start-up ventures – are looking for a reliable technology partner that can hold their hand during these transformational times.

"The concept of a smart grid, including how it can be built and the benefits it would offer, is at the heart of IBM's view on the future of energy," said Guido Bartels, general manager of IBM's energy and utilities division, at a September conference called GridWeek 2008.

Pozzuoli says as the physical grid is "enabled" with two-way communications, the demand for analytics, data warehousing, and other applications and services will naturally follow. "It's a big, big opportunity," he says. "Instead of just passing around that information, let's do something with it."

RuggedCom, having established itself as a leader in smart-grid networking, is well positioned to climb that value chain. Profitable when it had its initial public offering in July 2007, the company has had 17 consecutive record quarters and expects around $60 million in revenue this year. Profits are up 189 per cent year-over-year, orders are up 74 per cent, and revenues are growing at 61 per cent.

The company's shares have also been resilient over a volatile year, a sign that investors are taking it seriously. RuggedCom's stock is down just 12 per cent on the year, compared with a decline of 85 per cent for EnerNOC, 78 per cent for Comverge and 27 per cent for Itron.

MacDonald says venture capitalists still haven't figured out where the biggest opportunity for the smart grid lies, partly explained by a lack of awareness, and those that do see the potential in companies such as RuggedCom are scared away by the target market: utilities.

"Utility customers just look like terrible customers," he says. "And the guy making the buying decision won't get fired picking Cisco. He can get fired buying RuggedCom."

If a new start-up is able to penetrate the conservative armour of utilities, investors could find themselves sitting on the next Cisco. Says MacDonald: "Once one utility adopts your technology every other utility does and then you become standard."

The big phone companies were the same way 15 years ago. If it wasn't invented in the labs of Bell Canada, or provided by an elite of well-entrenched suppliers, such as Nortel Networks, it wasn't given a minute of consideration.

We know how that story ended.

"诚实"是全人类的"底线道德"

转文／刘加民


没有哪一个词儿像"诚实"这样被全人类共同重视，孜孜以求。所有的种族、民族、大家、小家，概莫能外。要找到一个国家、民族、阶层的人们，从小教育孩子要撒谎、蒙骗、胡说八道，恐怕不能。

我苦思冥想，终于找到了一种人，一种以撒谎为"职业"的人——职业骗子。他们会不会从小就教育孩子撒谎呢？仔细研究的结果却是：他们也要求孩子必须诚实，必须对自己的上下两辈，自己的同行姐妹，高度忠诚，绝不撒谎。因为了解对方真实的想法和情况，是"传道授业解惑"的基础，是协同作战的出发点。否则欺骗技艺就无法传授下去，不能薪火相传，千秋万代。用不了多久，就"绝后"了，这行当就消亡了。

从历时的角度看，人类文明的进步和发展，就是将优秀的物质和文化成果代代传承的过程。继承，发扬，承前启后，永无尽头。

从即时的角度看呢？人是社会性的动物，"社会性"是人类区别于低等动物的关键所在。人类需要合作和分享，需要信任和支持，才能发展和延续。假如人与人之间失去了"诚实"，失去了相互的了解和信任，"合作"就谈不上了，每一件事情的完成都要"从零开始"。那么所有人就都永远在起点上徘徊。

" 诚实"非常重要，主要是对人类整体或者较大的集体来说的，对一个个个体来说，却往往有"可乘之机"。一时一事的撒谎，可能会带来不错的收获，这是很多人总是难免要撒谎的根本原因。懒惰，省力气，最小的付出，得到最大的回报，是人的本性，也是无数科学试验创造发明的动力之一。不过这同样一个"本性"可以分化出不同的人类行为。用好了是积极的创造发明，为人类谋福利，用坏了，属于消极的投机取巧，演变成坑蒙拐骗。我们希望看到，后者得到的仅仅是暂时的局部性胜利，而且这胜利必将为更大的失败抵消。

学生作文，是书面表达能力的训练方式，"诚实"的表达必须是第一要素。假如作文的训练变成了撒谎的训练，假如学生作文只是为了骗取阅卷人的高分，并不表达自己真实的或者接近真实的想法，那么他将来在群体性活动当中，会寸步难行。假如他撒谎成性，失去了说真话的能力，这个人有可能失去在人群中存在的理由。

二十年前，有个犯了错误的学者说"中国人压根儿就不会说真话"，当时感觉挺偏激，现在经历了几十年的历练，观察思考，才发现这话有道理。说真话的人，真的是越来越少了。假冒伪劣、坑蒙拐骗、投机取巧，正在成为很多国人孜孜以求的生存智慧。谎言得不到及时的揭穿，骗子得不到必要的惩罚，说真话的人要付出巨大的代价，甚至丢失生命，这就是我们必须面对的“言论生态”。

当"谎言"成为全体国民的"官方语言"的时候，"人类底线"就遇到了严重挑战。不幸的是，我们正生逢其时，置身其中，徒叹奈何。

"诚实"是全人类的"底线道德"

没有哪一个词儿像"诚实"这样被全人类共同重视，孜孜以求。所有的种族、民族、大家、小家，概莫能外。要找到一个国家、民族、阶层的人们，从小教育孩子要撒谎、蒙骗、胡说八道，恐怕不能。

我苦思冥想，终于找到了一种人，一种以撒谎为"职业"的人——职业骗子。他们会不会从小就教育孩子撒谎呢？仔细研究的结果却是：他们也要求孩子必须诚实，必须对自己的上下两辈，自己的同行姐妹，高度忠诚，绝不撒谎。因为了解对方真实的想法和情况，是"传道授业解惑"的基础，是协同作战的出发点。否则欺骗技艺就无法传授下去，不能薪火相传，千秋万代。用不了多久，就"绝后"了，这行当就消亡了。

从历时的角度看，人类文明的进步和发展，就是将优秀的物质和文化成果代代传承的过程。继承，发扬，承前启后，永无尽头。

从即时的角度看呢？人是社会性的动物，"社会性"是人类区别于低等动物的关键所在。人类需要合作和分享，需要信任和支持，才能发展和延续。假如人与人之间失去了"诚实"，失去了相互的了解和信任，"合作"就谈不上了，每一件事情的完成都要"从零开始"。那么所有人就都永远在起点上徘徊。

" 诚实"非常重要，主要是对人类整体或者较大的集体来说的，对一个个个体来说，却往往有"可乘之机"。一时一事的撒谎，可能会带来不错的收获，这是很多人总是难免要撒谎的根本原因。懒惰，省力气，最小的付出，得到最大的回报，是人的本性，也是无数科学试验创造发明的动力之一。不过这同样一个"本性"可以分化出不同的人类行为。用好了是积极的创造发明，为人类谋福利，用坏了，属于消极的投机取巧，演变成坑蒙拐骗。我们希望看到，后者得到的仅仅是暂时的局部性胜利，而且这胜利必将为更大的失败抵消。

学生作文，是书面表达能力的训练方式，"诚实"的表达必须是第一要素。假如作文的训练变成了撒谎的训练，假如学生作文只是为了骗取阅卷人的高分，并不表达自己真实的或者接近真实的想法，那么他将来在群体性活动当中，会寸步难行。假如他撒谎成性，失去了说真话的能力，这个人有可能失去在人群中存在的理由。

二十年前，有个犯了错误的学者说"中国人压根儿就不会说真话"，当时感觉挺偏激，现在经历了几十年的历练，观察思考，才发现这话有道理。说真话的人，真的是越来越少了。假冒伪劣、坑蒙拐骗、投机取巧，正在成为很多国人孜孜以求的生存智慧。谎言得不到及时的揭穿，骗子得不到必要的惩罚，说真话的人要付出巨大的代价，甚至丢失生命，这就是我们必须面对的“言论生态”。

当"谎言"成为全体国民的"官方语言"的时候，"人类底线"就遇到了严重挑战。不幸的是，我们正生逢其时，置身其中，徒叹奈何。

双面邓公（转载）

1984年10月，几位大学生自发地打开"小平你好"的横幅，欢天喜地走过天安门。这是民意。五年以后，无数大学生悲愤莫名，闷在宿舍里，砸玻璃"小瓶"。这也是民意。民意准确地记住了邓小平的两面性。

邓小平的两面性是明摆着的。既要改革，又要坚持四项基本原则；既想跳出死路一条，又要回到死路一条--这就是邓小平。你可以责备他逻辑混乱，不能责备他言行不一。他言得认真，行得认真，认真支持改革，寸步不让保护改革的对象。


他充满着两面性，一贯如此。当华国锋的两个凡是遭到批评时，他参加了。几个月后，为了填补真空，他打造了他自己的四个凡是--四个坚持。他反对华国锋"权力过于集中"，随后由自己充当 "核心"。他承认文化大革命是史无前例的灾难，同时宣布"不仅今天，而且今后，我们都要高举毛泽东思想的旗帜"。他声称自己是"人民的儿子"，同时调动军队，镇压学生和市民。如果他是小学生，会有教师来指导他学点逻辑。如果他是凡人，会有人嘲笑他，也会有人跟他耐心讨论。然而，邓小平是共产党有体面有尊严的领袖，他超世脱俗，藐视人间众生，凌驾于一切逻辑和争论之上。


常人困惑于邓小平的两面性。但邓自我感觉良好，我行我素。因为他和我们不是同类。毛泽东死时，中国濒临危殆，大家都在说救国，其实各说各的，内容并不相同 --有的要救民，有的要救党。当邓小平断言"不改革死路一条"的时候，他并不是想说服老百姓，老百姓用不着他来说服。邓小平是在给那些抗拒改革的不懂事的党的其他领导人上课：你们再不改革，老百姓抛弃了党，咱们这个党就完蛋了！从本质上说，邓小平百分之百是一位救党主义者。他是党的化身，党性的载体。路易十四说，朕即国家。对邓小平，他就是党。他的立足点，他的命运，他的利益，他的视野，他的使命，他的喜怒哀乐，与其说在遥远而模糊的人民之中，不如说在党的最高领导机关之内。至于人民，无非是些"战斗力"和"生产力"；只有党，才是主宰。


简单明了的救党逻辑，就是邓小平的逻辑。一切为了救党。救党需要发展生产力。为了抓住"救党"这只老鼠，需要市场这只猫。因此，邓小平决定全力支持经济改革。可以毫不夸大地说，尽管不熟悉经济，不了解市场，他仍然是经济改革的当之无愧的支持者，而且是最有权力的支持者。但是，既然目的是为了救党，所以他时刻不忘保卫党的权力和地位。即使在经济改革刚刚起步的时候，用不着一年半载，他就会警惕地搜索一些 "自由化"的苗头，敲打敲打，免得一旦形成气候，成为党的心腹之患。他非常清楚，只有在民主制度下，才能避免文革重演；但是为了保住党的统治特权，他坚决拒绝权力制衡。他偶尔高谈民主，是为了塑造亲民形象，替党笼络人心，但不许假戏真做。常人眼里的两面性，其实是最纯粹的党性，浑然一体，一以贯之。


但是我们，你，我，大学生，乃至胡耀邦，赵紫阳，都是常人。根据邓小平的两面性，赵紫阳用"两个基本点"复述了邓小平的路线，邓小平欣然首肯，说，概括得很好。赵紫阳对我说过，概括为两点，比只说一点好，可以避免片面性。在我记忆中，赵从来没有拿"四个坚持" 来制约过"改革开放"，相反，他总是以"改革开放"来冲淡、弱化和遏制"四个坚持"。每逢邓小平祭起"四个坚持"这个基本点，讨伐自由化，赵一定及时提醒全党，不要忘掉小平同志还有另外一个基本点--"改革开放"，何况"中心"是"现代化建设"！这种制约，1988年以前，曾经很有效。特别在邓小平已经逼胡耀邦下台的险恶时刻，邓力群等企图以反自由化横扫全国的时候，起了积极的作用。它不仅使反自由化迅速无疾而终，而且在各个领域内加快了改革开放的进程，甚至形成了以淡化党的领导为实际目标的《政治体制改革总体设想》，在十三大形成共识。


"一个中心，两个基本点"，能得到邓小平赞赏，解决不了"两个基本点"的内在矛盾，改变不了邓小平的本性。邓这个人，在法国打过工，但没有接受人权观念的熏陶，畏惧民主制度。戎马生涯使他在人与人的各种关系中特别爱上了官兵关系，领导和服从的关系。我现在回过头来想，邓小平的"两个基本点"，其实应该更确切地表达为：第一，经济体制一定要改，第二，政治体制一定不能改。他的"一个中心"其实应该表述为：念念不忘捍卫党的统治特权。他支持市场经济的目的，绝对不是想拿它来弱化共产党，相反，他是想靠它救活共产党。

许多观察家认为：自由竞争的市场经济必然或迟或早和民主政治配套，经济改革非但需要而且必然推动政治改革；但是，邓小平打的算盘完全相反。他的打算是：通过发展经济，来巩固党的统治特权；也就是说，以经济的大踏步改革，来换取政治制度永远不改革，至少永远基本不改革。根据我的观察和思考，我认为，这才是邓小平的底线。越过这条线，对邓小平来说，就是自由化，就是动乱，就是大逆不道。--因此，他和胡耀邦、赵紫阳分手，是迟早的事，不足为怪，无可避免。 （包冬）

中国人：团结就是力量（转载）

这个幽雅静谧的小区，去年可不是这个样子，入秋后那一阵，每天晚饭后大门口锣声阵阵，人声鼎沸，大门外警灯闪烁，楼房临街外墙上高悬大字条幅：“十七大精神暖人心，谁暖我身？”

这个高档小区，建成并且入住几年了，供暖配套一直没给解决，开发商和政府互相推诿扯皮，业主无奈，趁着“17大东风”，闹了起来。

首先是在楼墙上挂大条幅标语，然后傍晚在小区大门外聚集抗议，除了引来大批警察之外，还是没有什么效果，于是业主们一商量，干脆集体上了马路。这一来闹大了，正值下班高峰，把一条主干线给堵死半边，连上行的公交大巴都堵住了。

这下警察炸营了，调来了将近20辆警车，业主们毫不畏惧，挽着胳膊横在马路上，高唱《团结就是力量》。正好是“17大”会议期间，警察也不敢大肆抓捕，双方就这样对持着。

如此几次折腾，惊动了“上面”，政府终于出面协调，很快问题就解决了，入冬之前，供热开通，人民胜利了！

警察们愤愤地说：这些刁民，跟**小区学会了堵马路闹事，也就是瞅着大会期间，上面不让惹乱子，要不然……哼！

居民们则高兴地说：幸亏咱们人多心齐，要不然这暖气还不知给拖到猴年马月呢。

小区恢复了平静。

想想真是奇怪，政府该办而且能办的事情，为什么非得逼着老百姓“折腾”一番才给办？

为什么少量百姓的要求再合理也不理，而非得变成“群体事件”才重视？

“幸福不是毛毛雨，不会自己从天上掉下来！”

看来，老百姓只能重唱《团结就是力量》了。

《团结就是力量》由牧虹作词、卢肃作曲，从1943年创作问世至今，历久弥新，被传唱了60多年。



《团结就是力量》歌词：

团结就是力量，
团结就是力量，
这力量是铁 ，
这力量是钢 ，
比铁还硬,比钢还强，
向着法西斯蒂开火 ，
让一切不民主的制度死亡，
向着太阳,向着自由 ，
向着新中国发出万丈光芒！